Erik's Market View - Latest Comments in US Dollar: Technical Backtest

Re: US Dollar: Technical Backtest

Erik78 — Fri, 05 Jun 2009 18:57:26 -0000

JP, thanks for the link

But all she mentions is the past 5 times that on that GIVEN day, the initial knee jerk reaction has been REVERSED later for that given 1 day. (she's talking intraday, not short term trend)

Today however, also went against what she mentioned was most likely.

Today the reaction was up, then the follow through was UP.....so it's now 5/6 on that trend.

Re: US Dollar: Technical Backtest

Erik78 — Fri, 05 Jun 2009 18:50:16 -0000

JP,

I dont correlate GOOD w/ USD too strongly. Tech names do not have that much influence.
Like 10-15 posts ago on here, i posted a link to a Prag Cap post that went over the statistical influence of the dollar
Tech is one of the LOWER ones.

Basic Materials and commodities of course are the most. UUP was up big today, but market was kinda flat...right
BUT....check names like AEM and SLW.....tanked hard. THOSE are dollar plays.

GOOG, I mean goog is still bullish till it's proven it's not, regardless of the dollar.

IMO....i agree w/ Waxie's last take. The HIGH of the year is most likely going to be THIS month.

What i see, is when July comes, we will already start getting into earnings again.

Earnings expectations are done by "anaylysts"....the same people who DOWNGRADED goog at 260. (but not 700) Who UPGRADE GS at 145 (but not 50).

A slew of UPGRADES is a sign of a market top

A slew of downgrades is a sign of a market bottom.

If we rally going INTO next earnings...and like i think is most likely the eXPECTATIONS are considerally MORE than last qtr, we are set up for a nice fall.

Remember, basically on average every "BEAT EXPECTATIONS!!!" this qtr.....However, when you compared their numbers to the last qtr, most were down. So that's "better than expected"...yet we are in a decline?

Some call that an earnings trough. I think better wording is "earnings expectation" trough.
The estimates were so low.

Now with all the "green shoots" and massive upgrades....the estimates are going to be too HIGH, and many names that people think are SAFE...will miss and dissapoint. It's just like anything else, it hits the extremes of each side till the trend starts to narrow and even out straight.

Re: US Dollar: Technical Backtest

indebtwetrust — Fri, 05 Jun 2009 11:40:26 -0000

Erik, Here's a forex interpretation of what happened. It's all about the NFP fade and then the dollar will resume tanking afterwards.

http://www.kathylien.com/si...

Re: US Dollar: Technical Backtest

indebtwetrust — Fri, 05 Jun 2009 11:38:30 -0000

No comment on GOOG. I haven't touched it since a disastrous shorting experience earlier this March. Just posted it as a reference to low the dollar can go. After all, if GOOG -$600, then where is UUP (hmmm, upper teens?)

Re: US Dollar: Technical Backtest

STOCKER4949 — Fri, 05 Jun 2009 08:46:02 -0000

Strange. Jobless expects 9.2% while report came out 9.4% worse than expected and market cheers. Go figure.

Re: US Dollar: Technical Backtest

STOCKER4949 — Fri, 05 Jun 2009 02:26:47 -0000

Kass predicts a 50 points drop on SPX coming.
http://www.thestreet.com/st...

Re: US Dollar: Technical Backtest

kamish — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 22:19:56 -0000

Been eying the Jul 500 calls on GOOG and it's breaking out now, any take on that?

Thanks!

Re: US Dollar: Technical Backtest

indebtwetrust — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 16:03:42 -0000

GOOG to $600!

http://www.hedgeaccording.l...

Re: US Dollar: Technical Backtest

Erik78 — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 22:56:09 -0000

I agree, that thing looks like a stretched rubber band.

Re: US Dollar: Technical Backtest

Guest — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 22:52:03 -0000

Erik if the $USD breaks resistance I think shorting the looney $cad should be a good play.

Re: US Dollar: Technical Backtest

indebtwetrust — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 22:38:42 -0000

OT: But the weather shows bullish DBA conditions - go see on the stockstop thread. I posted the latest satellite weather map.

See - good use of our tax dollars there - NOAA in geosynchronous low orbit giving traders free information.

Re: US Dollar: Technical Backtest

Erik78 — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 22:09:57 -0000

Kamish,

IMO: If you can not be trading if there is a chance there will be no access to online. This market is way to volitile and fast to be not watching it like a hawk.
I didn't mention MTL's ER report in detail, however I have probably posted over 5 times...never ever "game" earnings, and go long 2-3 days BEFORE er...and always sell riiiight before the actual report. that is the SAFEST, and highest probability trade, and the trend has kicked ass ALL season long.

Do not hold OVER earings, it's a gamble....not a trade.

these are my opinions....that i feel very strongly of.

i am bearish WFMI and MAR

Re: US Dollar: Technical Backtest

kamish — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 22:04:14 -0000

I got very busy with important things and had no access to a computer (very pissed, lost money) so I think will exit MTL in the morning and maybe pick up few more shares of WFT and average down and hopfully make back the loss.

Are you still bearish on WFMI and MAR?

Re: US Dollar: Technical Backtest

Erik78 — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 21:52:41 -0000

Kamish, i don't know of MTL...i would avoid it and let it do it's thing for a few days.

WFT, i do like (as a long)

Re: US Dollar: Technical Backtest

Erik78 — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 21:38:32 -0000

WFT, I do still like it as a long play "compared" to the broad market.

MTL, should of been exited today BEFORE earnings, if one was long. Never ever game the earnings, only the pre-run up to it. I am a strong advocate to NOT game earnings, as i have posted many times to always exit BEFORE ER, and only play the pre-run momentum. It's hard to tell the day after earnings too. Sometimes it's a re-bounce from an over-reactions....sometimes it's a follow through of more momentum (downgrades, etc). Best to play the pre-run...EXIT before the report, and let the stock digest the ER and react for a few days and get that all out of it's system.

Re: US Dollar: Technical Backtest

kamish — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 21:11:01 -0000

Erik, Could you fill us in on MTL and WFT after today's action, wether they head lower or higher in your opinion??

Thanks!