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Did you see that Starbucks is announcing a trial run of re-packaging some of its stores? Local names for the stores and offering beer and wine, plus poetry readings!
I find it interesting that they are announcing this just days before their ER. It seems like an admission that their earnings will be bad, but also an attempt to avoid the consequences in the market by looking like they already fixed the problem (or at least have a plan to do that).
What do you think, bro? Can they escape the consequences of their earnings (if this is right)?
I dont know, I mean that's alot of speculation/variables. It does sounds fishy, and any time some kinda "puff" of "implied" possible future good newsish like that comes BEFORE er......i tend to look at it the same too. (as if its know the earnings will be bad, so they hope to cushion it)
When stocks have TRUE real bullish news up their sleeve, and they want to get the most money (move up from it).....yea ya would think they would stay hush hush then unload it all during the conference call and crush the shorts.
But then again, I am bearish on sbux......so i have that thought process already, hence I will lean that way on something that seems nuetral. I have no idea..lol. But nothing about that story makes me NOT want to be bearish there....any less.
Disclosure: Loaded with Aug $13 puts on SBUX!!
Hey.....the market humbled the crap out of me this week I wont spin it any other way....
going into the week I wanted a 200pt pop on the dow to even then look to ENTER short, and i got it, and that even was a bad entry.....
Steve...you make some good points tho. In hindsight here (since its 20/20)...I think that head and shoulder sucked in a TON of shorts. B/C every one and there mom was talking about....so it was way overcrowded for a short term entry...so much so it was terrible to enter on it.
The only position I have is SBUX short here (aug puts)
the july puts I tried to time and get cute with on wed, handed it to me..oh how the market humbles ya.
Broad market, tho...alot is still variable...I mean the market has not had a "really bad" ER...to digest yet.
If/when it does....that should be a key sentiment test. The media pumped this as the "pivitol er" are the green shoots working etc??? so if the first 5-6 er are good, people believe it. (i dont, and when we get into the stock ER's that live and die by the American consumer...that is where the test truly is)
If sbux blows out the ER and rockets to 17, heck....lol....i'll take 2 weeks off...
You said: "I think that head and shoulder sucked in a TON of shorts. B/C every one and there mom was talking about....so it was way overcrowded for a short term entry...so much so it was terrible to enter on it."
Don't you think the opposite of that will happen now as everyone on wall street is and the media is BULLISH talking about the INVERSE HEAD AND SHOULDER, thus making it a very crowded trade???
Technicals don't seem to working and the GS trading bots could be massively going against the 'signals' using momentum to shake out the opposite side of the trade taking out the stop losses. Who knows but I shorted the close.
Ask your very good trader what side of the trade will he be on not IF but when a deadly FLU epidemic spreads around the flu season in the fall, Sweden is already warning in front pages that half of the people there will be infected and that WILL effect all businesses and started to prepare including the Arms Forces!! UK same thing and the U.S is not immune just look at the amount of cases we have here, but it's been downplayed by the PPT and WS Media. What will happen to the malls, Retail, Consumer? Does he think earnings will grow with that?
How about we are on the verge of a Big War!
Our vice president said in a speech to the AARP that government had to spend and should spend or we go BANKRUPT, they know something.. Where is the money going to come from?
Oh I can go on and on with facts that would spin your very good trader's head off!!
Long : FAZ, SRS, NVAX, BCRX
Short: SBUX
Eric,
Dax - Medium term
http://followmarketrend.blogspot.com/2009/07/da...
Between the range. Nothing new medium term.
Nice video.
http://followmarketrend.blogspot.com/2009/07/gr...
Click to zoom in
Big trades for you and for all
Enjoy
Since the GOOG hit $450 do you now think it will go higher? Took out the double top we were looking at. Also, SBUX threw a monkey wrench at us... oh well, we'll get it back... just not with the August puts.
Just based off that intraday high? No I dont.
The close of day (candle) is more important than the intraday (wic).....to me.
I have no clue on the market short term, but i do think that GOOG will continue to UNDER-PERFORM the Nasdaq here. This is the 3rd time that GOOG has been at 447 level here, yet the $NDX has completly skyrocketed over that same period of time. I think relative to the market that GOOG is still WAY ahead of itself here, and If i was confident of a goog LONG play to buy lets say going INTO earnings...i would play it and then hedge it w/ goog short. (pair trade)