DISQUS

indebtwetrust · 5 months ago

Call volume for GMCR outnumbers puts. Near term and atm strikes got PUNISHED today.

What does that tell you?

indebtwetrust · 5 months ago

We are near resistance on the Reuters CRB index that measures the commodity basket:

http://www.stockstop.org/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=15...

kamish · 5 months ago

Erik,
Would that be for the June or Jul 7.50 calls on MGM,LVS,DRYS??

Thanks as always!!

Erik78 · 5 months ago

Kamish....im not an advisor, i just bought shares (stock, no options). I just like to put up ideas I "think" might be good....i might also be dead wrong, as we all are from time to time., I am definatly no different....I prefer not to recommend the vehicle with which to do so. Thanks.

I will also say that I should just be used for ideas only, and they should at most just be an adjunt to your own trading ideas, nothing really more...ya know. Other's DD is a nice add on at times, but your own is the only one that really matters.

I will say, that if your trading june's I would not leave your screen for more than 5 mins, and not leave anything on the table overnight. Front month options are basically intraday only daytrading vehicles at this point.

kamish · 5 months ago

Erik...I'm not using you as an advisor and surly don't invest/trade based on forums. I think you have great idea's and insight and enjoy your take on issues and therefor I come to this forum, also I must say it's ironic that you brought up MGM-LVS as I went long on some of the casino issues earlier today including XTXI and NGAS and NVAX hedged with puts on AEM,SPG,WFMI,FAZ.

I still fear the open in the morning, but I wish both of us good luck with our longs as I think we'll get a nice bounce later in the day for few days but BEARISH long term!

Thanks as always!!

kamish · 5 months ago

Erik,
Based on the charts TRIN/TICK and the closing, I think we will have a big down morning of 100+ points at the open and then rally after 12 or so till close.

If that's scenario happens, would you still enter those positions long during the down faze of the day?

Thanks!

Erik78 · 5 months ago

Kamish, if that scenario happens...they i will be starting off underwater. LOL

So considering I am already long all 3 of these, then YES...would be the answer, i would love to have entered at a even cheaper price!

T_dub · 5 months ago

Erik,
I've followed your analysis for a long time and like it for the simplicity and effectiveness. I've started using the RSI wedges and trendlines effectively since.

You've been targeting individual plays for a while now, but what about the overall market. Do you think this counter-trend rally is done ? Are we resuming a serious bear move ? Pls. share your view, thanks.

T-dub

Erik78 · 5 months ago

T-dub,

Awesome, I am glad to hear that you benefited from something I wrote about!

Yes, I have been playing the stocks and not the broad market alot. I kinda blogged about this just now actually (just hit publish). Earnings trend was too sweet to not play individuals this past season, and now I still see more probability in trading individual plays vrs the spy. Way i see it is if i have a 65% of what i "think" the spy will do, and a 65% chance of what i think a stock will do. And they both agree, or i "think" they do...then i go with that.
Tricky market out there here.
Ex: Today i "thought" the market would go up (wrong)
I also thought that drys,mgm, lvs grcm would outperform the spy (3/4 correct)
If i was wrong on BOTH, then i would get my ass handed to me. Short term, It's a tricky market out there here...at least i think it is, and it's (to me) much more difficult than I can remember for the past 3 years.

I am nuetral to mildy bullish, till END of JUNE--to-MIDDLE of JULY time frame.
Then.....doom and gloom time.

jmo